SurveyUSA has done the first 50-state poll of the...
SurveyUSA has done the first 50-state poll of the election cycle to see where the Electoral College during the national election might stand. Obama beats McCain 280-258, Clinton beats McCain 276-262. Obviously, this is a poll and the election is 8 months away, so NaCl.
Comments (5)
Interesting... it's weird to see some of the states that shift.
Hillary, for example, wins Florida, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, none of which Obama would win, which I would have thought would be enough to make her the stronger candidate, but Obama does shockingly well out west and to a lesser degree up north, to make up for it.
Surprising.
Not so surprising to me. McCain would win the "old" vote in Florida and Pennsylvania against Obama, but look how good Obama has done in places like Virginia, the West, and middle America. McCain got killed in Nevada, for example, but I think he would win here against Clinton and not Obama.
Things that make me go, "huh?" include:
New Hampshire for Obama, but not Clinton?
Likewise Oregon and Washington?
Missouri for Clinton?
Nebraska too close to call Obama/McCain?
Michigan flips?
New Jersey for McCain over Obama?
Nope. I don't see value in this poll whatsoever.
Geoff, I think you're seeing this election with a bias toward the state of things in 2000 and 2004. The important thing to note is that McCain is no George W. Bush, and plays very well to the middle and to individualists. Hence, New Hampshire and New Jersey.
Now, I should make clear that several of these states were within the margin, so yeah, of course the poll is arbitrary to some degree. But what I think it shows above all is that the Red/Blue divide from 2000/2004 will not hold in 2008.
Sorry, I missed your point -- you meant the flip. No idea.